They Got Cocky
Israel is having a hard time against Hezbollah.
Why? This is the tiny nation that has taken on the Arab world in five wars throughout it's less than 60 years existance, winning every single one handily.
Why are they having a problem against a militia?
I think they got cocky.
I think Israel began to believe the stories about their invincibility. They have a good military, one of the world's best and with the best training. But, if they go into battle thinking they are so superior, they're going to make mistakes. They're going to underestimate the enemy and get a hard lesson in reality.
They have gotten just such a lesson.
There has also been a major, strategic mistake, one that I pointed out a few weeks ago. Israel is depending too much on their air power at the expense of their ground forces.
Air power is nifty and can turn the tide of battle - the Battle of the Bulge is a good example - but, once it blasts things to pieces, air power must retreat, allowing the enemy to reoccupy the postions they just left. Then, you have to blast them out of there again.
Only ground troops can hold - well, ground. And, Israel has cut its ground forces in favor of sexy aircraft.
Also, they didn't take into account the arming of Hezbollah by other nations; Iran and Syria. Iran and Syria get their their weapons from Russia - no slouch when it comes to anti-tank weapons.
So, Israel was surprised by Hezbollah's use of the Spandrel and Kornet ATMs.
These missiles have tandem warheads; the first warhead blasts away the Israeli's reactive armor - a great defense against HEAT rounds - clearing the way for the second warhead to punch a hole through the armor.
Which they do quite well.
So, Israel is fighting a different enemy than they thought. I believe they can still win, if they have the political will to do so. If not, if they bow to international pressure - pressure that, I believe, would prefer Hezbollah to remain - they may very well lose, emboldening their enemies - not just Hezbollah - to strike while the iron's hot.
They may be learning the error of their ways, but this might become the war that Israel lost. If so, it is their own fault, not because of any real superiority of the enemy.
For data on the Spandrel, go here.
For data on the Kornet, go here.